Rupiah Short Positions At Over 3-Month High; Rupee Sentiment

Reuters.com - Sentiment on most emerging Asian currencies became more bearish in the last two weeks on

sustained concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve's looming
tapering, while long positions on the Indian rupee hit a
10-month high, a Reuters poll showed.
    Bearish bets on both the Thai baht and the
Indonesian rupiah increased to the largest level since
late August, according to the survey of 10 currency analysts
published on Thursday.
    The baht fell to the  t in nearly 12 weeks against the
dollar as anti-government protests drove foreign investors out
of Thailand.
    The rupiah weakened past 12,000 per dollar on Thursday to
hit a near five-year low on increasing dollar demand from local
companies.
    Due to Indonesia's current account deficit, the rupiah is
regarded as the Asian currency most vulnerable to capital
outflows once the U.S. Federal Reserve starts winding down a
stimulus strategy that has fuelled dollar inflows to emerging
markets.
    Investors maintained expectations of a Fed policy shift in
the next few months on more signs that the U.S. economy is
gathering momentum.
    With those views, sentiment on most emerging Asian
currencies were less bullish or more bearish than the last
survey in late November.
    Short positions in Malaysia's ringgit and the
Philippine peso rose to their highest since late
August.
    Long positions in the Chinese yuan slid to the
lowest level since late September as the central bank held it
back from further appreciation using intermediaries. 
    Bullish bets on the South Korean won and the
Singapore dollar shrank on a weaker Japanese yen
.
    Sentiment on the Indian rupee, however, turned
bullish with its long positions at largest since late January.
    The rupee hit a five-week high as exit polls predicted a
strong showing for the key opposition party in the recent state
election. 
    Confirmation of a strong showing by the opposition Bharatiya
Janata Party would bolster the chances of victory in general
elections due by May, according to analysts. BJP is perceived by
many investors as being more business friendly. 
    The Indian currency has already found support from recent
data showing the economy may be bottoming out and as the current
account deficit has shrunk.
    Reuters plans to skip the next positioning poll on Dec. 19
on account of year-end holidays. The survey will resume on Jan.
3.
    The Reuters survey is focused on what analysts believe are
the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market
currencies: Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar,
Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee,
Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
    The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a
scale of minus 3 to plus 3.
    A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long
U.S. dollars. The figures included positions held through
non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
    The survey findings ASIAPOSN are provided below (positions
in U.S. dollar versus each currency):

 DATE     CNY   KRW   SGD   IDR   TWD   INR   MYR   PHP   THB
 5-Dec   -1.23 -0.87 -0.03  1.58 -0.23 -0.39  0.35  0.31  1.28
 21-Nov  -1.51 -1.12 -0.44  1.05 -0.57  0.23  0.04  0.06  0.72
 7-Nov   -1.38 -1.15 -0.53  0.64 -0.57 -0.13 -0.26 -0.53  0.30
 24-Oct  -1.71 -1.38 -0.73  0.08 -0.43 -0.19 -0.42 -0.59 -0.05
 10-Oct  -1.29 -1.05 -0.38  0.80 -0.49 -0.20 -0.26 -0.23 -0.04
 26-Sept -1.23 -1.17 -0.54  0.79 -0.53  0.05 -0.18 -0.38  0.03
 12-Sept -0.96 -1.04 -0.25  1.50 -0.59  0.17  0.27 -0.05  0.22
 29-Aug  -0.91  0.07  0.78  2.00  0.39  1.95  1.55  1.07  1.35